SEAPODYM 2° model projection

Projection of tuna biomass (skipjack, albacore, yellowfin and bigeye tuna) in response to climate change simulated by the Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM, http://www.seapodym.eu/ and https://github.com/PacificCommunity/seapodym-codebase).

Here, we provide the unfished biomass dynamics (i.e. without considering any fishing). Therefore, the observed trends are only due to the projected climate change. The projection is performed over the period 2011−2100 under IPCC's RCP 8.5 scenario to simulate "business-as-usual" climate anomalies. We provide the mean of the ensemble, composed of 4 simulations performed with different Earth System models (IPSL-CM5A, MIROC, GFDL-ESM2G and MPI-MR). For each of the four tuna species we provide both the total biomass (adults + juveniles) and the larvae abundance.

This model is described in : 

Senina, I., Lehodey, P., Sibert, J. and J. Hampton. Integrating tagging and fisheries data into a spatial population dynamics model to improve its predictive skills. Can. J. Aquat. Fish. Sci. 77, 576–593 (2020), doi: 10.1139/cjfas-2018-0470

These projections are described in :

Bell J.D., Senina, I., Adams, T. et al. Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change. Nature Sustainability 4, 900–910 (2021), doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00745-z

Details on SEAPODYM can be found in the user reference manual.